The case of migration in Türkiye and the economic effects of migration: Vector autoresressive model

Migration is a concept that we come across in every period from the old days to the present. Humanity has tried to explain the causes and consequences of migration movements in this historical period. Economic reasons, war, security anxiety, a desire to live in better possibilities lead to internal and external migration movements. National and international migration presents many problems for people who migrate and live in migratory areas. These problems are of social and economic origin. The migration movement, which has gained another dimension with the Arab Spring in recent years. Türkiye has become one of the countries receiving the highest number of immigrants due to being a border country to countries experiencing the Arab Spring, being on the transit route to Europe, and the embrace policy against immigrants. Migration movements have affected Türkiye legally, sociologically, culturally and economically. The main purpose of this study is to determine the migration shocks that Türkiye has been exposed to in recent years and what kind of economic changes it has experienced as a result. After the theoretical explanations about migration, the general situation of migration in terms of Türkiye was examined, and then it was analyzed empirically with Johansen Cointegration and VAR (Vector Autoregression Model) methods. The results of the Johansen cointegration test, which was conducted to determine whether the variables of immigration numbers, gross national product, unemployment and inflation in the period of 1991-2021 act together in the long run, show that the variables in question are not cointegrated. However, in the VAR analysis, it was concluded that the migration movement did not have an effect on the gross national product and unemployment rates in Türkiye, but increased inflation. For this reason, a certain quota should be applied to out-migration movements and the pressure on the economy should be reduced. Keywords: National and International Migration, Arab Spring, VAR Analysis, Johansen Coıntegratıon Test