Future scenarios for the improvement of Turkish primary education

The purpose of this study is to analyze the current situation in Turkish Primary Education and determine the possible future scenarios towards changes in age population, probable problem areas in the future, alternative policy suggestions, and process of improving the quality in education. Therefore, qualitative research method and phenomenology design were conducted in the study. Purposeful sampling method, maximum variation, and criterion sampling were applied to select the participants. A semi-structural interview form including eight questions with their details was developed by the researcher and used to gather data in the study. Conversations were done according to appointments and each conversation was formed in a text file after having been decoded. Data were grouped into themes, descriptive and content analyses were used together in analyzing data. Data of the study were examined in the dimensions of population and quality. In addition, the reflections of healthy population on educational and social progress were analyzed in the context of improvements, quantity, quality, opportunity, and problems in primary school age population. Study findings indicated that almost all the participants agreed on the fact that age population in primary schools would decrease in the period of 2023-2050. The increase or decrease in the age population of primary schools can be evaluated to be a factor that indirectly affects a number of variables such as the number of teachers employed and physical capacity of schools. In the process of improving the quality in primary schooling, input dimension focuses on physical capacity, human resources or teacher quality, expense on per student, and the number of computers; process dimension gives importance to time for learning, monitoring and evaluating student methods, the efficiency of education system, and the participation of parents; output dimension gives attention to values expected to be learned by students, changes in attitudes and life skills, measuring academic success, examinations, and dropout. The findings of the study demonstrated that the key factor in determining the success in primary schools was the quality of teachers. It was suggested in the study that relevant divisions in Ministry of National Education need serious plans to evaluate the possibilities on education and future of education. A skillful collaboration of the Council of Higher Education and Ministry of National Education is necessary in order to build a high quality of teacher training system. As a result, it can easily be said that Turkey needs to develop a model for improving quality in primary schools based on its own characteristics and conditions.Keywords: Primary education, population, quality, scenario technique