The relationship between public and private sector external debt and economic growth in Turkey

The effect of external debt on economic growth is a subject that has been discussed and empirically analyzed for a long time. When empirical studies investigating the effect of external debt on economic growth are examined, it is seen that there is no consensus in the literature. In this study, the effect of external debt on economic growth is examined. In this context, the relationship between Turkey's total, public and private sector external debt and economic growth is tested using the annual data set covering the period 1989-2021. First of all, traditional and structural break unit root tests were used to determine the stationarity levels of the series. ARDL bounds test, Toda-Yamamoto causality test and Hatemi-j asymmetric causality test were used to determine the relationships between the variables. The findings obtained in the study show that fixed capital formation, labor force participation rate and exports positively affect economic growth; total, public and private sector external debt stock also negatively affected economic growth. In addition, there is a one-way causality relationship between the positive shocks of growth and the positive shocks of the total and public sector external debt stock variables, from growth to the total and public sector external debt stock. These findings show that policy makers should consider that increases in Turkey's total, public and private sector external debt stock negatively affect growth.