Forecasting the prevalence of cancer, depression, and HIV in Turkey using arima models

Introduction: Diseases such as HIV, breast cancer, prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, anxiety, and schizophrenia are significant health concerns in Türkiye. Understanding the future trends of these diseases and developing effective intervention strategies are critically important. Objective: This study aims to evaluate the data between 1990 and 2021 on health issues such as HIV, breast cancer, prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, anxiety, and schizophrenia in Türkiye and to estimate their prevalence by 2050. Based on the findings, it seeks to contribute to shaping future health policies in Türkiye. Methods: Using prevalence data from 1990 to 2021, forecasts for the post-2021 period were made with the ARIMA model, conducting a quantitative study. Results: According to this forecasting study, it is estimated that between 2021 and 2050, the prevalence of HIV will continue to increase among men while decreasing among women; the highest increase in breast cancer will occur in the 70+ age group; the highest prevalence of prostate and colorectal cancer in men will be in the 50-69 age group, while colorectal cancer in women will be most prevalent in the 70+ age group. The highest increase in schizophrenia and anxiety among both men and women is expected in the 70+ age group. Conclusion: According to the ARIMA model, a significant increase in HIV, breast cancer, prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, schizophrenia, and anxiety is expected in Türkiye by 2050. Therefore, preventive, protective, therapeutic, and rehabilitative strategies should be developed, and health policies should be planned considering these findings.