Prediction of the current and future distribution areas of the chestnut gall wasp (Dryocosmus kuriphilus yasumatsu) in Turkey under the basis of climate change

Chestnut gall wasp Dryocosmus kuriphilus Yasumatsu (Hymenoptera: Cnipidae) was first detected in Türkiye in 2014 in Gacık village of Yalova province. This species is an important invasive species that affects chestnut trees worldwide, causing gall formation on buds, shoots and leaves, preventing shoot development and flowering, reducing fruit yield, and killing its host in case of severe damage. The aim of this study was to determine the current and future distribution areas of the invasive species chestnut gall wasp in response to climate change scenarios. To achieve this objective, the present and future distribution areas of the invasive species D. Kuriphilus, which damages Castanea sativa (Anatolian chestnut) naturally distributed in Türkiye, the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model was used as one of the ecological modeling methods based on climate change. The study utilized existing data on chestnut gall wasp in Türkiye from various sources. The suitability of areas for the chestnut gall wasp was determined based on current and future climate scenarios. The areas were classified as unsuitable, less suitable, suitable, and very suitable. As a result of the study; 1) it was determined that the chestnut gall wasp was distributed and damaging in the majority of the natural distribution areas of Anatolian chestnut in Türkiye, 2) According to the moderate and pessimistic climate scenarios, it was seen that the chestnut gall wasp will expand its distribution area in the future, 3) As a result of the pessimistic climate scenario compared to the moderate climate scenario, it was determined that the chestnut gall wasp will be distributed in more areas in the future.