The analysis of international trade between Turkey and Belt Road countries: The Panel Gravity Model approach

The historical silk road, a route where trade has continued for centuries and where cultures interact, has been transformed into the Belt Road Project by being more modernized as Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced in 2013. The Belt Road Project is located on the route where a dense population lives from China to Europe, including the African continent. In order for the trade to develop and continue uninterruptedly on the route determined both by sea and by land, the countries involved in the project; In addition to the establishment of transportation and communication infrastructures, financial support is also provided. There are countries that oppose the Belt and Road Project, seeing it as a project created by China specifically to meet its energy and raw material needs. The Belt and Road Project is trying to establish different formations against China because it is against the economic and political interests of some countries and because of the concern of losing the spheres of influence of these countries. Although it has gains and difficulties, the Belt and Road Project is seen as a project that operates on the basis of economic integration. It is expected that the Belt and Road Project will benefit the economic development of the countries with a win-win logic. Turkey is a country with a developing economy. Turkey needs alternatives to ensure continuity in the economy and to meet the increasing energy needs with the increase in population. At this point, the Belt and Road Project offers important opportunities for Turkey to realize its goals. Turkey has the potential to decrease the current account deficit by improving its relations with the countries involved in the Belt and Road Project and increasing its exports. The export figures of Turkey to the countries involved in the Belt and Road Project, Turkey's GDP, the GDP of the countries involved in the project, the population of Turkey, the population of the countries involved in the project, the distance of Turkey to the countries involved in the project, and The effect of the customs tariffs applied by the countries is analyzed. In this direction, a gravity model was established by creating a panel data set covering the countries that Turkey exports to in the belt road project and covering the period between 2000 and 2019. According to the results, it is determined that the gross domestic product and population of Turkey and the Belt Road Project countries positively affect Turkey's exports to the Belt Road Project countries. On the other hand, it is observed that the distance between Turkey and the Belt Road Project countries, the average customs tariff rates applied by the Belt and Road countries in their international trade, and landlocked of the Belt and Road countries have a negative effect on Turkey's exports to the Belt Road Project countries.