Comparison of banana production and it's foreign trade in Turkey to other countries: Correlation and regression analysis of Turkey's banana import

Turkey known as an agricultural country, but Turkey is heading towards the import of bananas to meet the banana demand. In this study, the relationship between the exchange rate volatility, which is important for the importers and banana import, producer banana prices; relationship between banana import and producer banana prices will be examined. In addition for banana importers and producers to bring forward the fact of banana production and it's foreign trade and aim to suggestions. In the theoretical part of the study, general information about banana products was given and World's and Turkey's banana cultivated areas, productions and foreign trade were studied theoretically. In the analysis part, the period of 1994-2015 for the import of banana in Turkey was considered and correlation and regression tests were done. As variables which are thought to be effective on foreign trade of banana product; Dollar exchange rate, banana import amount and banana producer prices are used as data on annual basis. Correlation analysis was performed to determine whether there is a meaningful relationship between the variables. The analysis showed that there is a linear relationship between exchange rate, producer prices and the logarithm taken imported bananas. It has been determined that there is a linear and weak relationship between the exchange rate and the producer prices, a linear and weak relationship between the exchange rate and the imported bananas, and a linear and weak relationship between the producer price and the logarithm taken imported bananas. As a result of the regression analysis of the effect of exchange rate change on the banana producer prices, 42.4% of the change in banana producer price was explained by the exchange rate, that is, the change in exchange rate affected the producer banana price. 23.9% of the change in banana imports is explained by the exchange rate, the effect of the exchange rate change on the banana import is less than the banana producer price and the change in exchange rate does not affect the banana import. The change in the banana producer price, which is explained by the banana producer price of 19,30% of the change in the banana import, has been reached as a result of the less effect on the banana import. Moreover, Turkey is dependent on banana import because it is insufficient to produce banana to meet the annual banana demand. Therefore, it is thought that the change in producer price does not affect the import of bananas. In order to reduce the dependence of Turkey on imported banana products, it is possible to convert the current open-field production mode to the undercover production method. The investor can be rented with long-term low prices provided that the banana production is made in the land such as the idle agricultural land (2b and forest). Incentives given for the purpose of greenhouse banana production, both rented lands from government for banana production and private agricultural lands, can be continued until the Turkey's banana production level is enough for the banana consumption volume. Although Turkey produces inadequate production to meet its demand in banana production, it can make profit by making transit trade of banana products with the method of countries such as Belgium, Holland, Germany. Also, as a result of an interview with producers, they stated that besides the incentives given to producers, government could fight more with banana imports entering the country illegally in order to protect the producers and stated that the support of the state's production inputs could be increased in terms of increasing the production. In addition, in order to increase production, state must put away production preventing factors such as irrigation waters absence, and for a sustainable banana production and It was compared the producers' expectation that the cultivated land for sustainable production should be kept under state protection against the establishment. Keywords: Banana, Foreign Trade, Exchange Rate, Price and Import Relation, Correlation Analysis, Regression Analysis