Türkiye'nin Güney Afrika'daki doğrudan yatırımları: Karşılaştırmalı bölgesel makro risk verileri zarflama analizi

In an international trade environment that has become more volatile as the volumes of trade increase, it has become imperative for investors to possess the most accurate and objective information provided in a timely fashion. This research aims to provide Turkish investors who are looking to invest in Southern Africa with a macro-risk classification of twelve countries of this region in direct comparison to Turkey for foreign direct investment (FDI) purposes. To reach this objective, we incorporated the macroeconomic variables which have been found to be statistically significant in influencing FDI inflows in most country risk assessment studies. These variables were divided into two groups which are inputs and outputs as mandated by the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method which we used for assessing the efficiency scores of the countries under study. Three DEA models were run namely Super BCC-I, Super BCC-O and Super SBM-V for the data on study variables from 2005 to 2012. We used DEA Solver Learning version 8.0 for running these models and the results showed that six countries out of the thirteen were averagely super-efficient on all the models thus we considered them as countries with the lowest macro-risk for FDI purposes. On overall Botswana was found to be the most attractive country for investing in but only for specific sectors. We then made recommendations on how best to invest in all the countries according to their achieved efficiency scores rankings.