The impact of Turkey's total energy consumption on economic growth: Fourier unit root and Fourier adl cointegration approach

In this thesis study, taking into account the accessibility of Turkey's data, the relationship between total energy consumption and economic growth has been investigated for the period 1971-2019. Unlike other studies in the literature, this study employs traditional unit root tests for the stationarity of variables, such as ADF, PP, and KPSS tests, as well as new generation unit root tests that consider structural breaks and are frequently used recently, such as Fourier KPSS, Fourier ADF, Flexible Fourier ADF, and Fractional Flexible Fourier ADF. In terms of the long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables, both traditional methods, such as Johansen and ARDL cointegration tests, and a new method, namely Fourier ADL cointegration test, have been utilized. Additionally, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test, which take structural breaks into account, have been employed to examine the causal relationship between the variables. According to the findings of the study, the stationarity of the variables is initially examined. As a common result of these stationarity tests, the economic growth and energy consumption variables are found to be first differenced stationary. Although long-term equilibrium relationship is found among the variables according to the ARDL and Johansen tests, it is not found according to the Fourier ADL test. The impact of energy consumption on economic growth is interpreted using various long-term forecasting methods. According to the ARDL long-term forecasting result, a 1% increase in energy consumption leads to an average increase of 1.64% in economic growth. Furthermore, according to the Toda-Yamamoto and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality tests, there is no significant causal relationship between the variables