Chicken production in Türkiye: Current situation and production forecasts

Animal-based foods play a crucial role in meeting protein requirements for a healthy diet. In this context, the livestock sector holds strategic importance for countries. The livestock sector consists of four sub-sectors: aquaculture, large and small livestock farming, and poultry farming. Poultry consumption, trade and industrialisation are developing more rapidly than other livestock sectors. According to the 2023-2024 Agriculture Report published by the OECD and FAO, approximately 356 million tonnes of animal meat were produced worldwide in 2023, with poultry farming accounting for 143 million tonnes, or 40% of this production. Due to the short production cycle of chicken products (eggs and chicken meat) and their preference over other poultry species worldwide, chicken farming had the largest share in this production in 2023, with 20,1milliardlive chickens worldwide. Poultry farming operates industrially in two areas: broiler chicken and egg production. Poultry farming in Turkiye began to grow in the 1980s with integrated production facilities and reached a level of high quality production in the 1990s with the establishment of modern facilities. Although economic crises and epidemics both globally and domestically negatively impacted production during this period, the pressure these crises exerted on the red meat sector and the resulting increase in red meat prices directed consumers towards poultry meat as a substitute product, leading to overall growth in poultry farming.This study aims to assist in the development of policies that will be effective in bringing the country's livestock sector up to the required level by considering the current poultry sector in Turkiye, examining the state of production volumes between 1980 and 2024, and providing future production forecasts for poultry and poultry products. The study utilised secondary data sources, with data from 1980 to 2024 obtained from the FAO, TÜİK, and UN Comtrade databases. Statistical analyses conducted in line with the study's objectives employed ARIMA(p,d,q) modelling and regression analysis methods. As a result of the tests conducted for chicken meat and chicken egg data, it was determined that the most appropriate method was ARIMA(p,d,q) modelling, while the most appropriate method for total livestock and chicken egg price data was regression analysis, using the Quadratic Regression model and Cubic Regression model, respectively. The statistical analyses conducted indicate that the increases observed in total livestock numbers, chicken meat production, and chicken egg production in Turkiye are expected to continue over the next five years. It is predicted that the high increases in producer prices after 2021 in the country will continue to affect chicken egg prices and that price increases will continue over the next five years. It is recommended that future forecasts obtained through time series analyses should be actively included in agricultural production planning and that data-driven plans should be developed.