Determining the impact of trade openness on CO2 emissions in Turkey with Enviromental Kuznets Curve Approach : A Fourier ADL Cointegration Test

When the indirect and direct factors of greenhouse gas emissions are examined, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which is among the direct impact factors, has a significant effect on environmental pollution and climate change. CO2 emissions are largely due to human activities. With the Industrial Revolution, serious increases were experienced in production levels on a global scale. After 1980, Turkey's commercial activities, which were included in the process of adapting to neoliberal economic policies and global integration, were reshaped. There is an increase in CO2 emissions compared to the period before 1980, depending on the fact that Turkey, which is in the status of a developing country, acts with the aim of economic growth in reaching the status of a developed country. The effect of trade openness on CO2 emissions was determined by Fourier ADL Cointegration test and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares method based on annual data for the period 1980-2018. At the same time, causality relationships among the variables used in the estimation of the Environmental Kuznets curve were determined by the tests of Granger Causality, Toda and Yamamoto Causality, Fourier Granger Causality, Fourier Toda and Yamamoto Causality and Fractional Fourier Toda and Yamamoto Causality tests. Fourier cointegration test results revealed that the variables were cointegrated. The FMOLS estimation, on the other hand, showed that the Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis was valid in Turkey during the 1980-2018 period. In addition, by 1% increase in the trade openness variable creates a 0.03% increase in CO2 emissions, by 1% increase in per capita GDP creates a 2.82% increase in CO2 emissions and by 1% increase in urbanization creates a 0.59% increase in CO2 emissions. According to the Fractional Frequency Fourier Toda and Yamamoto Causality test findings, one-sided causality running from urbanization to GDP per capita and from trade openness to urbanization was found.