An empricial investigation on tax amnesties in Türkiye

Tax amnesty refers to the government's unilateral waiver and collection of public receivables. Countries have been practicing tax amnesties for economic, political, fiscal and social purposes since the past. Tax amnesties can have positive effects in reducing tension in society during periods of economic and political crisis, meeting the short-term cash needs of countries and preventing the informal economy. However, if they are frequently applied, they may lead to a decrease in tax compliance, adversely affect taxpayers who pay their taxes regularly and cause a decrease in tax revenues in the long run. Therefore, tax amnesties should be prepared in detail according to the needs of the country and society and should be implemented carefully. In this study, the effect of various factors such as inflation, public sector borrowing requirement, budget deficit and elections on tax amnesties and the effect of tax amnesties on tax revenues are analyzed. The conditions under which tax amnesties are applied are investigated. In this context, a large data set consisting of economic data between 2008 and 2023 has been prepared. The data set includes economic realizations, general and local elections, tax amnesties and tax revenues of 81 provinces on the basis of accrual/collection rates. The data set is subjected to Panel Data Analysis and analyzed using the Least Squares Method. According to the findings obtained as a result of the analysis, general elections are the most influential factors on tax amnesties in Turkey. In addition, inflation, local elections and budget deficit have a negative effect on tax amnesties, while general elections and public sector borrowing requirement have a positive effect. Both the effect of tax revenues on tax amnesties and the effect of tax amnesties on tax revenues have been analyzed, but no explainable findings have been found. Accordingly, it can be said that there is no relationship between tax amnesties and tax revenues. The effects of the economic factors in the data set on income tax, corporate tax and value added tax were analyzed and the same findings were obtained for these three main tax items. Accordingly, while the effect of inflation on tax revenues is positive, the effect of public sector borrowing requirement is negative