The relationship between sovereign credit ratings and shipbuilding sector export: A study on developing countries

Investors and traders aim to obtain the highest return with low cost and low risk levels in the global market. Standard and Poor's (S&P), Moody's and Fitch, determine the correct information in order to evaluate the risk situations. The shipbuilding sector, which is one of the most important elements of the heavy industry sector; it has been a reflection of the increasing need for maritime transport. The shipbuilding industry affects many economies. It is aimed to investigate the effect of ship exports on the ratings given by important credit rating agencies such as S&P, Moody's and Fitch. In this context, panel data analysis was carried out by using the ship export data of 15 developing countries from the first 60 countries in the world in shipbuilding production between 2003-2022. LM test, Kónya causality test and AMG coefficient estimator were used to analyze. As a result of econometric analyzes; it has been obtained that there is a relationship between each cross-sectional units. As a result of causality analysis; it has been concluded that ship export cause Moody's and Fitch credit ratings only for Turkey while for S&P there is no causality. On the other side of causality; Moody's ratings doesnt cause ship exports for any country, Fitch's ratings are due to ship exports of 4 countries, and S&P credit ratings cause ship exports of 3 countries. In the coefficient estimator results; there is a positive relationship between ship export and Moody's ratings for 3 countries and a negative relationship for 2 countries. There is a positive relationship for 5 countries and a negative relationship for 3 countries between ship export and Fitch ratings. For S&P ratings, there is a positive relationship for 4 countries, while a negative relationship for 1 country.