Regional analysis of the determinants of tax revenues: The case of Turkey

Taxes are among the main sources of finance needed by a state to fulfil its essential and other duties. Taxes are not only a public revenue, but they are also an important tool that has an effect in political, financial, social and economic scales. In this sense, the factors that affect and determine the tax revenues, comprising an important part of a state's revenues and having an influential role in both economy and other fields, carry a huge importance for countries. Thus, the basic starting point of this study is to examine and analyse tax revenues, which are the reason or result of various economic facts or events and which are the most important source of finance as well, on the basis of Turkey. The purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of tax revenues and analyse the effects of these determinants on tax revenues. Within this scope, after their analysis via geovisualization, the tax revenues in Turkey and the basic determinants of tax revenues have been examined through Panel Data Analysis. Due to the data constraint in Turkey, the analysis has been categorized on the basis of provinces between the years of 1990-2001 and on the basis of 26 Development Regions between 2004 and 2011. According to the results, GDP per capita, the shares of industry and service sectors in GDP and the ratio of export plus imports to GDP positively affect tax revenues in Turkey. On the other hand, it has been identified that taxes are not collected by efficiently in agriculture sector on a regional scale and that this process affects tax revenues in a negative way. Similarly, public expenditures also affect the regional tax revenues negatively. Besides, as a result of quantile maps and evaluations, it has also been observed that there are serious regional disparities in Turkey in terms of tax revenues and the determinants of tax revenues. Moreover, according to the results obtained from the quantile maps, GDP per capita, the share of industry and service sectors in GDP, the ratio of export plus imports to GDP, the urbanization rate, and levels of education and democracy positively affect tax revenues in Turkey. However, it has also been determined that the share of agriculture in GDP, the inflation rate, public expenditures, population density and terrorism affect tax revenues negatively. Keywords: Tax Revenues, The Determinants of Tax Revenues, Taxation, Panel Data Analysis, Regional Tax Analysis, Turkey