Foreign trade activities of the volatility index fear indeximpact: The example of Turkey

The Volatility Index (VIX) is accepted as the fear index in the markets. It expresses the appetite of investors trading in the markets. The volatility index, which tends to increase in the event that the anxiety in the investment markets rises and investments become hesitant, determines the expected volatility of the market by using the link between the option prices and the market volatility, based on the stock option prices in the S&P 500 index. As the level of volatility in the markets increases, the risks increase. The second commercial areas of the study and the risks related to these realization methods were discussed and made with the necessary. The risks within the scope of developing international commercial services are emphasized. In the third part of the study, the relationship between the volatility index (VIX) and Turkey's import and export figures, Turkish Lira / US Dollar exchange rate (TRY / USD) and Turkish Lira / Euro exchange rate (TRY / EURO) covering the period January 1997 to July 2020. analyzed with monthly frequency time series analysis. In the study, the stationarity process of the variables was examined with the ADF and PP unit root tests, and it was determined that the variables were not stationary at the level, but were stationary at I (0) and I(1) at the first difference. In line with these results, the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables was examined with the Johansen Cointegration Test and it was determined that there was cointegration between them. Afterwards, the causality relationship between the variables was examined with the TodaYamamoto causality test. According to the results obtained, it has been determined that the variables act together in the long run, and in the short run, according to the results of the Toda Yamamoto causality test, there is bidirectional causality from VIX to export, one-way causality from Try/Euro to export and VIX to ımport Keywords: Dollar Rate, Euro Rate, Import, Export, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test, Volatility Index