Yuvacik baraji'nin rezervuar işletmesi için hec-ressim modeli kullanilarak karar destek sistemi geliştirilmesi

Decisions for the effective management of water resources are getting more important due to continuously increasing population and water demand of the world. These decisions require comprehensive and integrated management strategies. One tool that is used to improve water resources management nowadays is decision support systems.Yuvacık Dam Basin, located in the Marmara region of Turkey with 258 km2 drainage area, has high flood potential due to its steep topography, mild and rainy climate. Moreover, a considerable snowmelt contribution feeds the streamflow during spring since the elevation ranges between 80-1548 m. Effective operation of Yuvacık Dam Reservoir is a challenging task due to its relatively small reservoir capacity with 51.2 hm3 despite the annual need of 142 hm3 water demand for city of Kocaeli with a population of 1.5 million. The main motivation of the study is to provide the necessary amount of water without excessively increasing the risk of downstream flooding. The operators need to exceed flood regulation zones increasing the flood risk to take precautions for drought summer periods in order to supply water without any shortage.HEC-ResSim is selected as the reservoir simulation model. The study is divided into two basic operations; long term operation for daily water supply and short term operation for hourly flood protection purposes. Three different approaches (i.e. seasonal release control, variable guide curve and recession curve release) are tested using 2007-2011 data and the combined method that takes the advantages of all approaches is selected as the most suitable method for daily decisions. Hourly operation strategies are also developed applying pre-releases for short term flood operation. The basic idea is to put pre-releases into operation using numerical weather prediction based streamflow forecasts. The release decisions, outflow hydrographs and reservoir levels are analyzed to develop a decision support system. A real time operation of the reservoir is also conducted as a case study for 2012 March ? June season.