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The impact of the Arab Spring on conflicts in the MENA region: Findings from count data analysis
The Arab Spring (AS) that started in 2011 was assumed to reform the prevailing regimes and bring socio-economic improvements in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. However, the expected positive transformation of AS in the social, economic, and political domains have not been attained effectively. According to many researchers, the revolutions in the cases of Libya, Yemen, and Syria, particularly, failed to achieve the expected outcomes. The AS impacted various aspects of socio-economic life in the countries where revolutions took place. One of the impact areas was conflicts in the MENA region. This study aims to analyze the impacts of AS on conflicts in 16 countries in the MENA region utilizing count data analysis for the period 2000-2020. The study specifically deployed a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) estimation on the data obtained from Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) database. STATA software was used in data management and analyses. Our results indicate that the number of conflicts significantly increased after the Arab Spring, after having controlled for GDP per capita, democracy score, unemployment rate, ethnic fractionalization, religious fractionalization, corruption score, and religious fractionalization.
Oyun Teorisi bağlamında Türkiye'nin nükleer enerji politikalarında ulusal güvenlik boyutu ve bölgesel güç etkileri: İsrail ve İran analizi
Uluslararası ilişkiler, ulusal güvenlik ve dış politika bağlamında klasik yaklaşımlarla ortaya konulan teori ve stratejilerin veriye dayalı olmamasından dolayı yetersiz olduğu görülmektedir. Bu nedenle, devletlerin küresel ve bölgesel politikaları; ekonomi, siyaset, askeri güç, toplumsal yapının yanı sıra, enerji, gıda, sağlık gibi farklı parametreler üzerine kurulu bir sistemi zorunlu kılmaktadır. Doğal kaynakların giderek azalması, dünya nüfusunun artmasına bağlı olarak arz-talep dengesindeki bozulmalardan dolayı alternatif kaynak arayışı, mevcut kaynak kullanımının ekosistem ve uluslararası güvenlik bakımından kritik önemi, ülkelerin güvenlik politikalarında enerjiyi ön plana çıkarmıştır. Arzdaki açığı kapatma hedefiyle keşfedilen nükleer enerji teknolojisi, temiz ve verimli bir kaynak olmasının yanı sıra yüksek yok etme gücüne sahip silah üretme yeteneği kazandırdığı için devletler tarafından caydırıcı bir savunma mekanizması olarak kullanılmaktadır. Nükleer enerji alanında ilk çalışmalarına 1968 yılında başlayan Türkiye bu yarışa, Akkuyu Nükleer Güç Santrali'yle dahil olmuştur. Bu girişimiyle Türkiye enerji alanında dışa bağımlılığını azaltma yönünde önemli bir başlangıç adımı atmış olacaktır. Ancak nükleer teknolojinin güvenlik alanında kullanılabilme potansiyeli göz önünde bulundurulduğunda bölge ülkeleri arasındaki güç rekabetini arttırması beklenmektedir. Türkiye'nin böyle bir teknolojiye sahip olması, ortak geçmişinde var olan çekişmelerin de etkisiyle özellikle İsrail ve İran ile ilişkisine yeni bir boyut kazandırmıştır. Bu yeni denklem, Türkiye'nin birtakım siyasi, ekonomik, güvenlik odaklı baskı, ambargo ve caydırıcı politikalara maruz kalma riskini beraberinde getirmektedir. Nicel verilerle desteklenmeksizin salt güvenlik yaklaşımlarıyla bu risklerin açıklanması yeterli değildir. Bu nedenle çalışma, konuya ilişkin nitel yöntemler kapsamındaki teorik çıktıların yanı sıra, nicel yöntemlerden olan oyun teorisi bağlamında Türkiye'nin nükleer enerji politikalarının İsrail ve İran ile olan ilişkilerine yansımalarının değerlendirildiği ve yine bu çerçevede güvenlik odaklı yaklaşımların incelendiği bir araştırma sunmayı amaçlamaktadır.
Nationalization of the Turkish defense industry in the post-1974 period: A comparative examination through theoretical and empirical analysis
In the Turkish defense industry, a notable transformation has occurred, particularly focusing on reducing reliance on foreign suppliers and enhancing domestic research, development, and production infrastructure. This transformation was initiated by the US military embargo following the 1974 Cyprus intervention, which prompted Türkiye to reconsider its defense industry strategies. As a result, significant progress has been made in establishing the defense industry ecosystem, adopting policies that promote local and national development, and increasing international cooperation. This article examines the development of Türkiye's defense industry through theoretical and empirical analysis. Firstly, using Realism and Liberalism of the International Relations theories, the development of the Turkish defense industry is explained in detail. Then, the trends in military expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), one of the main indicators of defense industry development, are analyzed using regression analysis for specific periods.
Ban or regulate: An assessment of lethal autonomous weapon systems (Laws)
ABSTRACT The third revolution in warfare after the use of gunpowder and nuclear weapons would likely be the development of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems. As a result of technological advancements in the area of Artificial Intelligence, there is an increased demand for those weapon systems for use in armed conflict. As Trumbull said "In future wars, victory may depend on "the quality of each side's algorithm" rather than on the skill or bravery of a State's armed forces". Some states invest heavily to improve those weapons. However, the development and deployment of Autonomous Weapon Systems have sparked intense debates regarding their ethical, legal, and societal issues along with arguments for and against using weapons and have even been called for to be banned. Limitations on the use of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems as weapons means, and combat methods are covered by International Humanitarian Law both specifically and generally. Further regulations are negotiated at the related forums to pave the way to use those intelligent weapons complying with the existing and potential future regulations. While some advocate for a blanket ban on autonomous weapons, this thesis argues that regulating these weapons is more pragmatic approach that balances security concerns with ethical considerations. This paper also contributes to ongoing discussions and policy deliberations surrounding autonomous weapons and their impact on global security and stability. Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, International Humanitarian Law, Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems.
Cybersecurity communication policies: Effective methods for communicating cyber threats to the public
Cybersecurity communication policies allow a state or a company to effectively communicate about cybersecurity issues. This research aims to explore the field of cybersecurity communication and answer how to inform the public about cyber threats. Given the limited body of research and data available on cybersecurity communication policies, particularly within the context of raising awareness of cyber threats, this research seeks to establish a baseline understanding. Using exploratory research approaches by utilizing secondary data, previous incidents of cyber attacks serve as illustrative examples to highlight the importance of effective cybersecurity communication policies. Through this approach, this research seeks to contribute to academic discourse and provide practical insights for stakeholders in enhancing cybersecurity readiness and resilience. Raising awareness through campaigns and informational materials aimed at both internal and external stakeholders is essential for a successful communication policy, with simplicity and understandability being the cornerstone of effective communication. Media relations in cases of cyber attacks provide the opportunity to provide information to the public directly and effectively. It is important to make statements about cybersecurity measures, threats, and measures taken by a reliable spokesperson. Social media and other online platforms, where people spend most of their time today, are one of the ways to communicate effectively against cyber threats. Considering the managerial aspect of the situation, governments and large organizations need to be able to immediately announce cyber threats to the public also by using emergency notification systems. In conclusion, this research aims to advance understanding of cybersecurity communication policies and their role in addressing cyber threats. By synthesizing existing knowledge and analysing real-world incidents under an exploratory research approach, it seeks to provide actionable insights for enhancing cybersecurity readiness and fostering a culture of security awareness.
Limitations in regulating weaponization in the new space race
As states progressively expand their military capacities beyond the atmosphere, the militarization and the weaponization of space became a landmark in human history. Over the years, the space objectives of states shifted from solely attaining military power to having multidimensional smart power which involves commercial and civil aspects. The continuous process of development in space technologies began to have an ongoing impact on weaponization through commercial gains. Therefore, understanding the transformation of the space race through commercialisation is necessary to uncover the structural impediments to disarmament. Along with addressing the role of commercialisation on achieving power in space, this thesis examines three main limitations in regulating weaponization: the surge in non-state actors participating in arms development, dual-use space technologies, and the absence of robust international enforcement mechanisms. It also offers a qualitative analysis on the interplay of the new dynamics in the current international environment which adds layers of complexity to the traditional state-centric paradigm. To develop strategies against the potential threats of space weaponization, these limitations should be an issue of considerable significance to all states.
The rise of ISIS in Afghanistan: Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K)
"Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K)" is a name used to refer to the presence of the ISIS terrorist organization in the historical Khorasan geography, which includes many countries in the region, particularly Afghanistan and some Central Asian countries. IS-K, which is the branch of ISIS in this region, operates mainly in Pakistan and Afghanistan and relatively in the Central Asian republics, especially Uzbekistan. IS-K, which first officially declared its existence in January 2015, was formed when prominent commanders of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operating in Pakistan came together and pledged allegiance to ISIS. The settlement of these commanders, all of Pashtun origin, in regions of Afghanistan such as Nangarhar and Lugar near the Pakistani border, led to the spread of ISIS throughout Afghanistan. The geographic presence and distribution of the organization was shaped by the historical, political, ethnic, religious, and cultural dynamics of the region. In this context, the organization was not only confined to the eastern and southern provinces of Afghanistan, but also began to penetrate the northern provinces of Afghanistan. In this way, it has recruited members from the Uzbek population in a remarkable way. Recently, IS-K is not limited to the Khorasan region, but has also carried out attacks in other countries such as Iran, Türkiye, and Russia. ISIS's attacks outside the Khorasan region, have been conducted by members of the organization of Tajik origin. People who were refugees in Russia and later joined ISIS played an important role in this regard. Regarding this information, the current study examines the reasons for the existence of IS-K. First, the ideological background of ISIS and its counterpart in the religious composition of Afghanistan are discussed. Then, the factors of the internal social dynamics of Afghanistan and Pakistan and the impact of the failure to consolidate the central government of Afghanistan on the emergence of such organizations were examined. In the following chapters of the thesis, the organizational structure, capabilities, tactics and strategies, actions and effects of IS-K and its reality on the ground during the second Taliban period are examined in the context of regional and international developments.
Impact of state and non-state actors on Israel's cybersecurity infrastructure and the law of international responsibility
This thesis explores the impact of state and non-state actors on Israel's cybersecurity realm, their influence on the country's cybersecurity framework, and case analysis within the context of the Law of International Responsibility. The study utilized qualitative document analysis methods to examine the historical evolution of these actors, their adaptation to cybersecurity environments, and their impact on Israel's current cybersecurity landscape. It reveals that the concept of national security, shaped by Zionist thinkers even before the establishment of Israel, and the innovation culture of Israeli citizens significantly influenced the development of the country's cybersecurity infrastructure. The study also highlighted the positive effects of collaboration between Israel's state cybersecurity agencies and private entities and the beneficial relationships established with international allies. The impact of Israel's training programs, which focus on cultivating elite personnel within the military system, strengthens both public and private sector collaborations in cybersecurity. An analysis has been conducted to assess the results of these programs on cybersecurity. The findings are evaluated under international law, and the Pegasus spyware operation associated with Israel is analyzed within the framework of Law of State Responsibility.
From soft power to smart power: Türkiye's grand straregic security in Somalia
This study focuses on the shift from soft power to smart power of Turkish security policy towards Somalia under the framework of constructivism. Based on the theory of soft power, introduced by Joseph S. Nye, Turkish soft power employment is elaborated. Turkish-Somali relations are analyzed with relation to the concept of soft power, hard power, and smart power. After AK Party came to power in 2002, Türkiye's foreign policy experienced a shift towards soft power. In this context Türkiye has enhanced its current institutions as well as established agencies and institutions with the aim of improving its foreign and security policy. In relation with soft power the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency, Presidency for Turks Abroad and Related Communities, non-governmental organizations, and Turkish Airlines are among the most effective institutions in Türkiye. Naming year 2005 as "Africa Year" and following active engagement of Türkiye in Africa, Türkiye's serious approach to the continent is apparent. On line with the contributions to African countries, Türkiye proves its efficient and sincere contribution to Somalia as well. What makes Türkiye special is the use of soft and hard power in combination without creating an image of force or threat. Contrary Türkiye is welcome in the countries, particularly in Somalia. This shows the smart power in relation with security strategy that Türkiye implements strategically in Somalia. This thesis explores Turkish security policy in general and further specifically towards Africa and in detail on Somalia in short and long term. Keywords: Hard Power, Smart Power, Soft Power, Turkish Foreign Policy, Türkiye's Somali Policy
2003'ten 2022'ye Türkiye ve Çin ilişkileri: Türkiye Cumhuriyeti resmî gazetesinde yayımlanan belgeler ışığında ekonomik güvenlik çerçevesinde stratejik bir değerlendirme
1971 yılında Türkiye'nin Çin'i resmen tanımasıyla başladığı kabul edilen iki ülke ilişkileri, günümüze kadar çeşitli dönemlerde yoğunlaşmış ve azalmıştır. Kuşkusuz bu durumda küresel konjonktürdeki değişimler ve her iki ülkenin öncelikleri önemli rol oynamıştır. Bu araştırmada, Kasım 2002 seçimlerinden bu yana tek parti iktidarıyla yönetilen Türkiye'nin Çin ile son 20 yıllık ilişkileri, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Resmî Gazetesi'nde yayınlanan belgeler üzerinden içerik analizi uygulanarak incelenmektedir. Yapılan inceleme neticesinde bahsi geçen dönemde Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Resmî Gazetesi'nde konuyla ilgili olarak 159 belgenin bulunduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bahsi geçen belgelerin yazılım marifetiyle analiz edilmesi neticesinde Türkiye'nin 2003-2022 arasında Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti'ne bakış açısına dair somut çıktılara ulaşılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular ve literatürden tedarik edilen bilgiler ışığında iki ülke arasındaki ilişkilerin stratejik geleceğine dair çıkarımda bulunabilmek adına bir SWOT (GZFT) analizi uygulanmıştır. Gerçekleştirilen bu iki yönlü analizler sayesinde hem mevcut durum objektif olarak ortaya konulmuş hem de geleceğe yönelik iki ülke ilişkilerinin güçlü ve zayıf yönleriyle barındırdığı fırsatlar ve tehditler tartışılmıştır. Son tahlilde iki ülke ilişkilerinin son dönemde bir ivme yakalamış olduğu dikkate çekmektedir. Fakat ülkelerin siyasi, ekonomik ve kültürel kapasiteleri dikkate alındığında stratejik düzeyde karşılıklı olarak atılması gereken adımlar olduğu dikkat çekmektedir.