Investigation of the possible effects of post-1980 crisis and dynamics on sheep production in Türkiye

While the phenomenon of economic crisis is explained by cyclical fluctuations that develop due to external sudden shocks or wrong decision processes, according to classical economics, it is explained by internal dynamics according to Marxist doctrine. In order to understand the real effects of crises affecting an economy, it is necessary to define the dynamics well and analyze the formation process of the crisis. The 1980 stabilization decisions had a great impact on shaping the Turkish economy. As a matter of fact, in this process, the transition to neoliberal economy began, and radical changes took place in the country under the influence of global and local dynamics and crises. In the country where urbanization and industrialization accelerated after 1980, regional development took place mostly in the west of the country and along the coastline. In this process, the rural area's inability to benefit sufficiently from public investments and income inequality have caused large migration movements over time. While 53.6% of the total workforce worked in the agricultural sector in 1980, this rate decreased to 17.2% in 2021. The migration movement had an impact mostly on animal production activities and resulted in the termination of many animal production enterprises. This situation has manifested itself in a decrease in animal numbers throughout the country. In this process, small ruminant production carried out under extensive conditions lost its appeal and began to be replaced by cattle production activities that can be carried out under intensive conditions close to city centers without the need for meadow pasture. As a matter of fact, the presence of small ruminants decreased by more than 50% in 2010 compared to 1980. In this study, changes in sheep assets in Turkey were examined under the influence of global and national dynamics and crises, and then, with the help of the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) method, future predictions regarding sheep assets were made throughout the country and at the level of regions where production is intense. While the study evaluating the period after 1980 touched upon which events generally affected the country's economy in the 42-year period, it was seen that the factors affecting the country's economy had a negative impact on sheep production until 2010, and that there was an increasing acceleration in the sheep population as a result of the agricultural policies implemented later and the radical changes made in the import regime. The only statistically significant change occurred in 2010. It is predicted that the increase in sheep presence in the country will continue in the future. At the sub-regional level, it was predicted that the increasing trend in recent years would change course in the 4 sub-regions that have a significant share in the sheep existence, and the realizations in 2022 gave similar results. Although the increasing trend achieved in 2010 has replaced the 30-year animal loss in 10 years, it is still far from the self-sufficient production level. Today, the foreign trade potential provided by the country's geopolitical location and the availability of meadow pasture resources are still not utilized at the desired level in order to develop sheep production activities.