Sosyal güvenlik sigortasında aktüeryal teknikler

Actuarial valuation is a special kind of financial calculation based upon some economical and demographic assumptions proposed for future. Purpose of this valuation is to compare actuarial present value of all future benefit payments which will be made to all members of the foundation and their dependants versus to actuarial present value of all future contributions into the fund by members and their employer. According to these assumptions at time t, sum of the actuarial present value of all future benefit payments and administrative expenses might be smaller than sum of the actuarial present value of all future contributions and current assets of the fund. Otherwise, all the assumptions must be revised and some adjustments must be made to increase actuarial value of future contributions and to decrease actuarial value of future benefits. The purpose of this thesis is actuarial valuation of a private fund which had been established by one of the Turkish Bank for their employees social security. This actuarial valuation will be made using aggregate and unit cost method on the evidence of current Foundation Voucher, member structure and economical indicators. In order to define the variables which will constitute the basis for the actuarial calculations, firstly the past activities of the Foundation have been analyzed and then the status has been determined according to the current Foundation Voucher purview. During the determination of the important variables such as interest, inflation and mortality, values matching the realities of Turkey and stochastic approximation have been chosen, and a flexible computer program, which can be adapted to changing conditions, has been prepared. In this thesis, all ready values for the future revenues and the expenditures of the Foundation with respect to end of 2006 fiscal year have been calculated (in accordance with the Foundation Voucher) under definite assumptions and the differential has been compared to the fund values in the balance sheets.