Forecasting gold prices by using ann and an application

For centuries, the value and the importance of protecting the gold, which is used in human history is one of the oldest metals. Gold is the symbol of wealth throughout the ages; in the historical past has played an important role in the monetary system. Today, in addition to purchasing physical gold as an investment instrument used as a gold mutual funds, remain important in the industrial and medical use. In this study, primarily within the economic system instead of gold, the gold in the world and the importance of Turkey's economy and usage are discussed. The next chapter in the world gold market gold prices changes occurring examined, gold prices that could affect variables Silver prices, Brent oil prices, USD / EUR parity, euronext100 index, American Dow Jones Index, 13 week term U.S. bond interest rates and the U.S. CPI index, selecting a model with neural networks is established. Artificial neural network model established by, 2-16 hidden layers formed with the predictions, the predicted values with the actual values R2, RMSE, MAE and MAPE (%) values were calculated and compared. 16 hidden layer R2 = 0.99877, RMSE = 16.60526, MAE = 11.96391 and MAPE (%) = 1.53663 values obtained and the best results were achieved. These values with increasing number of hidden layer of the network statistically demonstrate that better results can be obtained. Considering the results of the sensitivity analysis performed at the beginning of factors affecting the price of gold and silver has been found that the price of oil.