Evaluation of the greenhouse investment decisions of the producers by the real option method in Antalya province

In this study, the applicability of the real option method, which is a new method in evaluating investment projects, on greenhouse investment projects was investigated, and the adequacy of the current net present value method used in the evaluation of greenhouse investment projects was investigated. Within the scope of the study, using the face-to-face questionnaire method with 65 investors who produce vegetables in the greenhouse, the factors affecting the investment decisions and the data of the evaluation methods of the investment decisions were obtained. According to the data obtained, it was determined that 73.4% of the investors will continue their current investments, but 84.6% do not intend to make new investments or expand the existing ones. The factor that caused this situation emerged as constant uncertainties in product sales prices and regular increase in costs. It is also determined that 57.8% of investors see a new technology that can be applied within their greenhouses as a risk and they do not want to take this risk. As a result, it has been determined that greenhouse investors avoid making decisions under uncertainty and risk, and current project evaluation methods are insufficient to evaluate uncertainty and risk. Greenhouse investment feasibility prepared in this direction has been evaluated both with the net present value method and the real option method, the project value, whose net present value is 1 572 070 TL, was calculated as 1 750 859 TL in the evaluation made with the real option method. This increase in project value was obtained by calculating and adding the deferral option included in the project to the project value.