Evaluation of the effects of the European Union common agricultural policy on Turkey's agricultural policy in the framework of the experience of Central and Eastern European countries: Wheat, sugar and cotton markets

At the forefront of the external factors that shape and reform agricultural policies in Turkey is harmonizations with the Common Agricultural Policy. Although a long time has passed when the Ankara Agreement was signed since 1963, the uncertainty regarding Turkey's membership continues. In various studies, opinions such as full membership, privileged partnership different from full membership, or Custom Union updates are offered. The aim of the thesis is to examine whether membership will bring an increase in product-based welfare to Turkey in terms of producer welfare/customer welfare using the difference in difference method. In the thesis, it is aimed to reveal the welfare effects of turkey's possible EU membership on wheat, sugar and cotton markets by examining the experience of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), which became memebers of the Union with the last enlargement wave. Results indicated that the foreign trade balance of the EU entry was positively affected for sugar, negatively for cotton, and there was no significant differentiation in wheat. It is clear that the liberalization have different consequences for different agricultural products. Therefore, the welfare-enhancing effects of trade-creating effects on product basis vary. This situation revealed the need for Turkey to develop different policies for each product group in terms of selected strategic products. Thus, the scenario that envisages the introduction of free trade agreements in additional areas by updating the Custom Union is the most appropriate option, and the decrease in producer welfare loss that will arise in the face of domestic price decreases should be compensated by introducing various support mechanisms, primarily income and input support.