The change of Türkiye's relations with Syria and Israel (2002-2014)

During the rule of the Justice and Development Party, Türkiye's Middle East policy significantly changed. The emerging military security policies in foreign policy in the 1990s witnessed a shift towards co-operation and economic-oriented policies. Türkiye-Syria relations deteriorated in the 1990s due to disputes over the sharing of Euphrates-Tigris waters and Syria's support for the PKK terrorist organization. Relations between the two countries improved after the Adana Agreement and increased during the AK Party period. However, it changed with the start of the Syrian civil war, and Syria once again became a threat to Türkiye. Having established security-oriented relations with Israel during the Cold War, Türkiye further developed military and strategic ties with Israel in the 1990s. In the 2000s, Türkiye maintained a relationship with Israel within the framework of security balance. However, the Mavi Marmara attacks committed by Israel and Türkiye's increasing internalization of the Palestinian issue altered the dynamics of bilateral relations in a negative sense. Israel became a threat to Türkiye. The Neoclassical Realist Theory provides the theoretical basis for a comparative foreign policy analysis in which internal and external variables are evaluated together. It is essential to do a comparative analysis of Türkiye's internal and external factors to understand and explain the change in Türkiye's foreign policy towards Syria and Israel. This thesis will explore the leadership impact of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Strategic Depth approach of Ahmet Davutoğlu, and the influence of the international-regional systems comparatively. The thesis analyzed the change in Türkiye 's foreign policy towards Syria and Israel during the JDP governments in terms of internal and external variables between 2002 and 2014. The result of the study finds that internal variables can impact foreign policy to the extent permitted by the strategic environment created by external variables. Key Words: Turkish Foreign Policy, Türkiye-Syria Relations, Türkiye-Israel Relations, Change in Foreign Policy, Neoclassical Realist Theory.