Modeling land use change under different scenarios using Dyna-Clue model

In this thesis, both land-use and its temporal-change dynamics in Uzungöl, where is an important nature tourism area in Turkey and declared as a Nature Conservation Park in 1989, were determined. In first, land use changes from the past to the present were digitized and mapped between 1986 and 2015 by using remote sensing data. Then, future land-use changes from 2015 to 2050 were estimated with Dyna-CLUE model. The mapping of future land-use changes was based on two different scenarios. In Scenario 1, future land-use changes were estimated until 2050 when speed and trend in land-use change between 2004 and 2015 continue similarly. In Scenario 2, future land-use changes were estimated until 2050 when the change speed of land-use between 2004 and 2015 continues similarly, and also in case of a protection zone in the close vicinity of Uzungöl. Dyna-CLUE model was established with land-use change data between 2004 and 2015 by considering 5 different driving factors for the study area (slope, elevation, distance to main road, distance to settlements, distance to the lake). For Dyna-CLUE model, logistic regression analysis was used to determine statistical relationship between land use change and the driving factors. Validation of Dyna-CLUE model was made by using confusion matrix method based on 2015 actual land-use map. According to this, total accuracy was obtained as 0.96. When land-use change between 1986 and 2015 was evaluated, it was observed that agricultural areas was mostly transformed to settlements. Also, it was observed that change speed in land-use was significantly increased after 2004 due to increased tourism in Uzungöl. That's why, Dyna-CLUE model was established between 2004 and 2015. Based on determined two different scenarios, future land-use maps in Uzungöl were created for 2030 and 2050. With this thesis, future land-use change projections were created for Uzungöl, where is under threats of illegal and uncontrolled housing. It was also proposed that the results of this study will be used as decision support data for the authority in land use planning in Uzungöl.