Projection of occupational accidents in manufacture of fabricated metal products and precautions agai̇nst respecting risks

In this thesis, number of occupational accidents that may probably be occured in the future are estimated in the Manifacturing Metal Products sector, where occupational accidents occur most frequently in our country in recent years. The errors of the estimations were calculated by using estimation errors methods. Estimates to be made on occupational accidents have an important issue in measuring the effectiveness of the studies on occupational health and safety in our country at workplaces. In this sector where the number of occupational accidents is very high, occupational safety measures should be taken in order to prevent or minimize the occupational accidents. By The Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Services's Inspaction Board, inspections are conducted to investigate safeness and healthiness of workplaces. In this study, contradictory and incomplete issues against law which may cause occupational accidents were determined as a result of inspections conducted in 15 workplaces manifacturing fabricated metal products over 3 provinces in 2017. Scores have been assigned for these issues and three situations with the highest scores which may cause risk and hazard have been identified and the necessary measures shall be taken for them have been determined. While estimating the number of occupational accidents, "Statistical Annuals" published by Social Security Institution were used to achieve past datas and estimates were made by using quantitative estimation methods. MAD and MAPE error term methods were used in the process of calculation of estimation errors. Keywords: Occupational safety, estimation of occupational accidents, quantitative estimation methods, MAD, MAPE, hazard and risks, measures