Estimation of air cargo market share

The strenghts of air cargo transportation are: being fast, secure, safe, without traffic and preferable for valuable products but air cargo carriers have limited capacity. Therefore, using properly of limited amount of aircraft and capacity forms critical importance for air cargo carriers. With the help of right estimation of forecasted market share, profit improvement will be possible by distributing the capacity accordingly. By predicting having share from air cargo market, decisions of new routes or additional flights to which destinations can be taken, furthermore, it is plausible to review and reschedule existing flight frequencies as well. Besides, in order to increase the market share, which parameters is changed to which direction will be measured after the estimation is done. This work has two different purposes. The first of these, to settle on which variables will be used in model by analyzing variables that affects market share. The latter is, generating a reasonable model which will be used for predicting air cargo market share. In this study, when variables that affect air cargo market share are decided, experts opinions are utilized. Time Series Analysis is used as first method, then Artificial Neural Networks is used for estimation. The results of prediction are compared with actualized market shares and it is seen that using Artificial Neural Networks gives us comparable correct results. Forecasted market share results are calculated for oncoming period and there is a debate section to actions that might improve profit for oncomig period.