Climate change impacts on water resources

Gradual increase in world's population and industrial activities increasing linearly with the needs of the population jeopardize the natural resources. Probably the most important one of all the existing sources is water resources which are the basis for biodiversity and exposed to the adverse effects of climate change. In this study, sea level changes in the Izmit Bay was modeled, using a hydrodynamic model named MIKE 3 Model, in order to investigate current and future climate change effects on the Izmit bay. For this purpose, the collected meteorological and hydrological data was modeled using regional climate models by different groups working under a research project named CLIMB within the EU 7th Framework Programme between 1950 and 2100, as a first step. Following this, the catchment was modelled hydrologically, for two different periods, namely the reference (1970-2000) and the future (2040-2070) periods using the meteorological results of the regional climate models. As a second step, the Izmit Bay was re-modeled hydrodynamically using the data which was obtained in the first stage for the reference and future periods. The comparative results of seven points selected in the Bay are presented in this thesis. In conclusion, it was found out that the sea level changes were higher in the inner part of the Bay compared to the outer sections of the Bay. In addition, the variations were found to be higher for the future period compared to the reference period and the maximum sea level rise is going to be 0.6 m. Potential ecological, socio and commercial risks that might be encountered in future in this region was also discussed.