Analysing of the effects of climate change on dairy farming in terms of economy and agricultural policy; Thrace region

This research has four main aims. First one is to analyze the economic effects of climate change on dairy farms in the Thrace Region in terms of costs and production value. The second one is to show the socio-economic factors which affect farmers' awareness of climate change. The third one is to determine farmers' adaptation strategies in the context of climate change and adaptation strategies for the future. Finally, the fourth one is to bring proposals in terms of agricultural policies. The research was conducted face to face with 140 farmers in the Thrace Region. In order to find the economic effects of climate change on dairy farming, the model developed by Calil et al. (2012) was used. Within this scope, three different scenarios were prepared then the future projections for 2044 were created. The logistic regression model was used to determine the socio-economic factors that affect farmers' awareness level of climate change. As a result of the research, it is revealed that the climate change causes a cost increase of 10-50% in the dairy farms, and that the expected increase in the milk producer prices is lower and that the producer welfare will decrease due to the milk yield loss. Besides, it is determined that the farmers were not fully aware of the concept of climate change, and the adaptation methods which they applied were not enough. According to the results of the Logistic Regression Model, the internet use, the land ownership, the non-agricultural income and the role of the decision-making process effect farmers' knowledge of climate change. In this context, it is proposed that all stakeholders, including policymakers in the agricultural sector, should raise awareness of the climate change, particularly by informing farmers through the extension activities, conducting the multidisciplinary studies that look at the effects of climate change in the region, and the increasing support for farmers to adapt them to the climate change according to the conditions of adaptation. Key Words: climate change, dairy farming, milk cost, heat stress, Thrace Region.