The inflation and interest rate volatility: A time series analysis in Türkiye for 1990-2022

This research delves into the intricate relationship between interest rates and inflation in Turkey spanning between 1990 and 2022. Through a time series analysis approach, the study examines variables such as deposit interest rates, consumer prices inflation, final consumption expenditure, and the Real Effective Exchange Rate. Its primary focus is to explore how fluctuations in interest rates can impact inflation, and to contribute to a nuanced understanding of these economic dynamics in the Turkish context. The study further employs models such as ARDL and VECM to test the co-integration between the series and analyze the short and long-term impacts. Its key findings will shed light on the interrelation of these economic variables over the specified period and offer insights into the effects of monetary policy decisions on the Turkish economy. The implications of this research are significant for policymakers, businesses, investors, and academics. It provides a detailed analysis of the causal relationships and their potential impacts on short and long-term economic strategies. By understanding the correlation between interest rates and inflation, policymakers can make more informed decisions to ensure sustainable economic growth. This research is crucial for anyone who wants to gain a deeper understanding of the Turkish economy and its monetary policies.