Proposal method for future demand estimation of port of İzmir (Alsancak)

In commercial activities of the World and Turkey, transport of cargo with transshipment is safer and more economical than land transit and airline modes. The ports which are the most important and essential elements of maritime transport should be analyzed by using quite accurate and realistics techniques in feasibility stage, because their planing and construction are considerably expensive. The estimation of the potential demand of a new port investment is the most important part of the feasibility reports. In this study, three feasibility reports commissioned by the General Directorate of DLH Construction for Çandarlı Port are summarized, and the potential freight traffic by 2016 is estimated by using the time series method and the data of total container cargo handled in the Port of Izmir (Alsancak). In the time series analysis, ARIMA method which was developed by Box-Jenkins is used.