Evaluation of the seismic resilience of public open spaces using multi-criteria decision-making methods and a proposal for a sister disaster parks model: The Erzincan example

In the aftermath of disasters, public open spaces emerge as critical urban spaces where evacuation, temporary shelter, logistical support and healthcare services are provided. The Great Erzincan Earthquake of 27 December 1939, with its evacuation, temporary shelter and relief operations carried out under severe winter conditions, and the earthquakes centred on Kahramanmaraş on 6 February 2023, with their widespread needs for shelter, coordination, logistics and healthcare services, have clearly demonstrated the strategic importance of these areas in disaster management. The aim of this study is to assess the earthquake resilience of public open spaces using multi-criteria decision-making methods and to develop the ‘Sister Disaster Parks Model’ for disaster management. The province of Erzincan, situated within the influence zone of the Yedisu Segment—which lies on the North Anatolian Fault Zone and has the potential to generate a major earthquake in the future—was selected as the study area. The study utilised the Delphi Technique, Neutrosophic DEMATEL, Neutrosophic TOPSIS, Neutrosophic VIKOR, Monte Carlo Simulation and the Nominal Group Technique. As a result of the three-round Delphi process, seven main criteria and 51 sub-criteria determining the earthquake resilience of public open spaces were identified. The Neutrosophic DEMATEL analysis revealed that the criteria of infrastructure, capacity and spatial characteristics had the highest level of importance, whilst the criteria of natural structure, accessibility and safety were identified as key determinants. Among the 22 public open spaces assessed using the Neutrosophic TOPSIS method, the Ekşisu Recreation Area and the Esentepe Recreation Area were identified as the alternatives with the highest levels of resilience. The Neutrosophic VIKOR results confirmed the TOPSIS ranking, whilst the Monte Carlo simulation supported the robustness of the results. The ‘Sister Disaster Parks Model’, developed as the most original output of the study, proposes a four-tiered structure comprising the Coordinating Disaster Park, the Big Sister Disaster Park, the Middle Sister Disaster Park and the Little Sister Disaster Park. The model conceptualises disaster parks as an integrated urban resilience model.