GIS-based integrated modeling of water management under global climate change (Case study Kucuk Menderes basin)

Küçük Menderes basin is located in the Aegean Region, western Turkey. Küçük Menderes basin is one of the most productive regions that provide sufficient water to produce food for everyone in this region. Küçük Menderes basin basically provides water for different sectors; industrial, agricultural demand and environmental (wildlife) demand along with municipal (settlement) demand. In the coming years, climate change is expected to pose serious challenges in Küçük Menderes basin. Shortly, it is necessary to treat the basin water in such a way that the environmental demand is least affected. Most water use takes place in agricultural production therefore water scarcity, based on climate change, will directly affect on agriculture water demand. The aim of this research is increasing the understanding of water demand distribution to apply for different future climate change scenarios. Scenario/Model helps to comprehend what is water demand management strategy for different sectors; industrial, agricultural, municipal (settlement) and environmental demand during the lack of rainfall in the basin. In this project, according to the amount of rainfall, sector priorities determined and a model produced for water allocation during the change of years. In the first step, maksimum and minimum total municipal (settlement) demand is calculated based on population and water consumption by person for a year, as it follows in the second step, maksimum and minimum water demand for agriculture is computed. Environmental demand is calculated according to water demand for lakes and industrial demand is calculated by using water demand for different industries. By reducing water use in agriculture, the introduction of new systems and methods in irrigation, considering the permeability of soils, it will be suggested that specialization product dependence of the industrial sectors. As a result, a dynamic model is produced by calculating water demand and supply. Model manages water scarcity for different sectors and indicates water allocation during lack of water. Key words: water demand and supply, climate change, dynamic model