Analyzing the economic complexity of the chemicals sector, which is among the priority sectors in the Eleventh Development Plan, in the context of Turkey

The aim of this study is to determine the complexity of the product groups subject to foreign trade in the chemical industry, which is among the priority sectors in the Eleventh Development Plan, to analyze Turkey's performance in these product groups and to reveal the products that Turkey can focus on for a more complex chemical industry. In addition, another objective of the study is to determine the complexity of the total chemical industries of the countries and to determine Turkey's position in the world. For this purpose, PCI-KIM values representing the complexity value of the chemical industry product groups and ECI-KIM values representing the complexity of the chemical industries of the countries were calculated by using the sectoral export data of all countries between 2009-2022 according to a certain taxonomy, with reference to the method developed by Hidalgo and Hausmann. Subsequently, in order to determine Turkey's performance, Turkey's data were analyzed comparatively with the data of OECD countries in the context of PCI-KIM and ECI-KIM. As a result of the PCI-KIM analyses, it was determined that 54 of the 132 chemical industry products subject to foreign trade are complex. On the other hand, as a result of the calculation of ECI-KIM values, it was determined that almost all of the countries with high ECI-KIM values are developed and/or oil and derivatives exporting countries. It was concluded that the countries with low ECI-KIM values are all underdeveloped countries with low-income levels. When Turkey's performance in the chemical industry is analysed, it is determined that Turkey mainly specializes in non-complex chemical industry products and exports these products, while OECD countries mainly specialize in complex products and export these products. Five product groups that Turkey can focus on for a more complex chemical industry have been identified. It can be stated that economic complexity is a very important variable for the economic development of countries, and Turkey, as a developing country, should focus on the quality of production and exports, i.e. economic complexity, rather than quantity, in order to converge to developed countries. It can be stated that policies that will increase the production and exports of products in the PCI-1 and PCI-2 product groups, which are determined as complex in this study, will contribute to Turkey's sustainable economic growth.