The effect of climate change and determination of risk adaptation strategies in coffee production of Rwanda

Coffee production in Rwanda stands high among three different export crops such as tea, pyrethrum, and was recently set as priority crop where more attention should be concentrated. This study estimates the impact of climate change and variation on coffee yield in Huye district, southern province of Rwanda. This study has also estimated univariate probit model which identifies household and farm characteristics affecting cooperative memnbership (risk management strategy) in coffee production. Perceptions about changes in climate and risk adaptation strategies in coffee production were identified. In this research both secondary and primary data were used and primary data were gathered from a random sample of 110 households in HUYE District. Coffee farmers were interviewed in August-September 2016 using structured questionnaires that were administered to household's heads via person-interviews. Climate data (temperature and precipitation) were collected from the Rwanda Meteorological Station located in RUBONA Station. The precipitation and temperature data provided information on the effect of moisture to the phonological period of the coffee at critical months in the growing season. Collected data were analyzed using STATA 10 and SPSS 20 (Statistical Program for Social Scientists). Due to prevalence of various methods used for risk reduction technology among local farmers, the present study has developed a probit (binomial) model that estimates the individual effect of each adaptation technology among coffee farmers. By doing so allows this study to capture adaptation strategies that smallholders use by diversifying farm and farming patterns. The results from climate change model has revealed that approximately 74% of change in the coffee production during the last 17 years was explained by climate factors jointly. The results show that coffee has exhibited a positive relationship with maximum temperature during ripening of coffee, a negative relationship with the average minimum temperature during ripening, a strong positive relationship with total annual rainfall. The results indicate that coffee farms near Huye Mountain are highly vulnerable to precipitation variation like erosion during heavy rain in March through May and drought from June through August. On the other hand, the results from binary probit (risk adaptation) model suggests that age, agricultural technical assistance, off-farm work, coffee plot size, family size, income of the household are significantly associated with a greater probability of having a cooperative membership as one of risk mamangement strategies. In addition, the factor analysis which was performed to identify the common sources of risk in coffee sector and possible risk reducing strategies has revealed that the main risk sources were: price volatility of coffee cherries, lack of enough rain, non-reproductive coffee varieties and floods. Moreover, the risk adaptation strategies, mixed farming (intercropping), followed by use of enough chemical inputs, use new and resistant coffee varieties and pesticides usage were considered crucial by coffee farmers. The study has found ambiguous evidence about the ability of irrigation usage to reduce crop vulnerability to precipitation variation since the coffee is grown just in higher altitude of Huye mountain, but suggests that proper cost benefit analysis should be done in order to measure the welfare value of different adaptation strategies applied in the region. Therefore, the farmer's incentives and perceptions should be taken into consideration because they are the major drive of any adaptation decision about the farms.