Predicting case numbers in the epidemics with basic reproduction number and analysis of hospital resources sufficiency

In this study, number of cases are estimated using the basic reproduction number (R_0) in order to be prepared to an epidemic which is likely to be in the future and to be able to struggle with it efficiently. For this purpose, the scenario analyses of pandemic influenza which has seen many times in the past and the has a high potential of generating an epidemic again are executed. The primary resources needed during a pandemic influenza are hospital normal beds, intensive care beds and ventilators. In this study, it is estimated using basic reproduction number, that how many patients will need these resources during an epidemic. The specific rates of the number of cases gained using basic reproduction number will need those hospital resources as mentioned above. In this study, a simulation model which tests that at what rate these resources meet the needs has developed. The model has run for different R0 values and the results are analysed.