A system dynamics model to reduce the impact of cutaneous leishmaniasis disease on humans

The purpose of this thesis is to search for ways in reducing incidence of vector borne disease called leishmaniasis on humans. Frequently encountered in East Mediterranean and Southeastern Anatolian region of Turkey due to risk factors including poverty, malnutrition, lack of sanitation and defrostration, leishmaniasis disease is transmitted by sandflies' (vector) bites to humans. In addition to the zooprophylaxis effect in which domestic animals acting as dead-end hosts are used to alleviate the incidence on humans, we also incorporate the tilapia fish population into the model to observe its effect in terms of relieving the vector bites on humans. We elaborate dynamic behavior and feedback loop structure of the system under study with three blood meal hosts: rodents, humans, and domestic animals. Proposed model is simulated throughout a period of 1000 days. We conduct sensitivity analysis by changing the rates of vector biting and the number of larvae eaten by tilapia fish which influence the transmission of the disease. Results indicate that basic reproductive number R_0 and its prevalence in humans decreases as the size of domestic animal and the sandflies larvae eaten by tilapia fish increases.