Factors affecting exports according to the types of transportation: An application on Turkey

In the world trade system, which is evaluated on the basis of a win-win/win-lose game, middle-income countries have increased their share compared to high-income countries in recent years. Turkey, which is in a geopolitically and strategically advantageous position, has been observed to be below its potential in world trade when compared to other middle-income countries. In this context, it is important to investigate the factors affecting exports according to transportation modes, which are thought to be an important factor in increasing Turkey's share in world trade. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors affecting Turkey's export according to the transportation modes. For this purpose, the factors that are likely to affect Turkey's exports by using road, rail, sea and air transport modes have been determined. In the study, in which monthly data for the period 2000:01-2020:12 are used, export data according to transportation modes is the dependent variable, industrial production index of Turkey, industrial production index of EU countries, real exchange rate index, Brent oil price, Baltic Dry Cargo Index (Baltic Dry Index- BDI) variables are independent variables. handled as. In due course of the econometric analyzes, it was determined that the most important variable affecting exports according to all modes of transportation is Turkey's industrial production index. After the industrial production index, it has been determined that the real exchange rate index is one of the other important variables according to the model created and the methods used. As a result, it has been determined that the policies aimed at increasing the production capacity will affect the export volume of Turkey according to the transportation modes rather than the competitive exchange rate policies.