An econometric analysis of benchmark interest rate in Turkish bond market

It helps to take correct decisions for policy makers and investors, analyzing and knowing the reasons which affect on market interest rate. An econometric model is formed with monthly datas of 2009:6 – 2015:3 period better to understand the factors which affect on price of two years Turkish bonds known as benchmark interest. In first chapter, market variables(US Ten years bond, CDS, Inflation, Central Bank average funding interest) are shown which probably affect on market interest and in second chapter, a model is formed to measure effects on market interest which was selected as dependent variable by using these variables. The statistical judgement of model is made and confidence intervals are determined according to numerical and figural results. Besides, enough explanations are given about statistical confidence tests and methods. At last chapter, the effects of independent variables on interest are examined according to results of model, actual situation of Turkish economy and it's dynamics are mentioned briefly. Some suggestions are recommended to investors and policy makers according to these informations.