Analysis of the relationship of the agricultural sector with macroeconomic variables in the Turkey's economy

Turkey is a country suitable for agricultural production with its geopolitics location, climate and land conditions. At this point; plans, strategies and policies for the sector in Turkey have started to be produced in different periods and new steps have been taken to implement the necessary incentives. The main purpose of this study is to protect the importance of the agricultural sector in terms of Turkey and agricultural production should be encouraged, to ensure that agricultural products have an advantageous status in terms of foreign trade. Therefore, the impact of agricultural indicators on macroeconomic variables in the study for Turkey within the scope of the 1991-2021 period range and three separate models were established by the ARDL border test and Granger causality test. Model I, II and III ARDL limit test results have determined the presence of a long and short-term relationship between variables. In the causality test results; In Model I, it was determined that there was a bidirectional causality relationship between the openness rate of agricultural raw material imports and agricultural raw material exports, and that the openness rate of agriculture, forestry and fisheries added value was not a Granger cause. In Model II, a one-way causality relationship was found from the added value of agriculture, forestry and fisheries and the agricultural foreign trade balance to GDP per capita, and no causality relationship was found between the employment rate in agriculture and GDP per capita. In Model III, a one-way causality relationship has been determined from the inflation rate to the import of agricultural raw materials, from the export of agricultural raw materials to the inflation rate, and from the agricultural PPI to the inflation rate.