Analysis of factors affecting producer behaviour and decisions within the framework of hazelnut production policies in Turkiye

Although Turkiye is a leader in global hazelnut production and exports, the unplanned expansion of production areas into fertile base lands has brought about certain structural problems. This situation has necessitated the development of regulatory policies such as base land bans and alternative crop support. The main objective of this study is to measure the effectiveness of compensatory payments and alternative crop support policies in response to the ban on hazelnut production on fertile land and to analyse the socio-demographic and economic reasons why producers insist on continuing hazelnut production despite the ban. To this end, the study area was determined as the Çarşamba Plain in Samsun Province, and a survey was conducted with 269 producers in the plain. The ARIMA Model was used for the macro data of the study, while the micro data was analysed using the Chi-Square analysis, Decision Tree Algorithm (CHAID) and Binary Logistic Regression analysis methods. The findings indicate that, despite the restrictive policies implemented, hazelnut production areas have increased in the research region. It was determined that 46.8% of producers were unaware of the base land ban, while 55.4% were unaware of the compensatory payment support; producers preferred hazelnuts over other products with higher gross margins due to low labour requirements and purchase guarantees. Logistic regression analysis results revealed that an increase in family labour reduced interest in alternative policies. According to the decision tree algorithm, the most decisive factor in producers' grubbing-up decisions was land size, and small farms below 10 decares responded partially positively to grubbing-up policies. The study determined that the implementation of policies developed for hazelnut production did not yield the expected results. Macro analyses indicate that Turkiye will not experience any problems in terms of hazelnut exports. Consequently, it was stated that the current policies on hazelnut production should be abandoned and that emphasis should be placed on policies aimed at developing Turkiye's hazelnut foreign trade volume, increasing its effectiveness in international exchanges, and playing a decisive role in price formation mechanisms.