Analysis of the relationship between climate change and rural development in Turkey: The GMM approach

Today, rural development is widely recognized as a multidimensional concept that requires bottom-up approaches tailored to local needs rather than centralized solutions. Within this framework, policies that consider the specific characteristics of rural areas are crucial. However, rural regions are increasingly vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change, which threatens to worsen existing development challenges. This study aims to examine the interaction between rural development and climate change in Turkey. First, rural areas were identified at the provincial level based on Turkey's official rural area definition. A Rural Development Index (RDI) was constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with several indicators reflecting rural living standards. In parallel, a Climate Change Index (CCI) was generated for each province using meteorological data obtained from the General Directorate of Meteorology. To assess the relationship between rural development and climate change for the 2008-2021 period, two econometric models were employed. The first model analyzed the effects of the climate change index, entrepreneurship, public transfer expenditures, female higher education graduates, in-migration, and out-migration on rural development. The second model examined the effects of rural development, water distribution, environmental expenditures, and migration flows on clime change. Panel GMM estimation was used, followed by cointegration testing and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test. Findings indicated a bidirectional but adverse relationship: while climate change negatively influences rural development activities also contribute to environmental degradation.