The impact of labour force statistics on economic performance in türkiye

In this thesis, the effects of the main indicators of the labour market on economic performance in Türkiye are examined comprehensively. Starting from the first quarter of 2005 until the third quarter of 2024, macroeconomic indicators such as employment rate, unemployment rate, labour force participation rate, gross domestic product (GDP), exports and inflation have been comprehensively analysed. ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model was used as the econometric method in the study. This method contributed to the testing of short and long term relationships between labour force indicators and economic growth. When the results obtained after the application and analysis are evaluated, it is found that labour force participation and employment rates have positive effects on economic growth. In addition, in line with the finding obtained, it is seen that the labour market is a structural element that supports growth. The Granger causality tests conducted in the study also revealed that these indicators create a significant causality on GDP. The results of the study did not reveal a direct effect of labour force participation on exports, but a strong relationship was observed between GDP and exports. Again, in terms of inflation, labour costs were found to have an effect on prices; however, high unemployment rates were found to reduce the severity of this effect. When the results of this analysis supported by international comparisons are taken into consideration, it is revealed that Türkiye's labour market is structural. This situation leads to high unemployment, low female employment participation, informal employment and most importantly youth unemployment. As a result of the study, it is concluded that it is necessary to increase the qualified labour force, it is imperative to ensure education-employment harmony and it is essential to eliminate regional inequalities. In line with these results, we can say that it is of critical importance for Türkiye to reach its sustainable growth targets.