Development a calculation method for Turkey short term electricity demand forecasting

As other competitive sectors for electricity production and distribution sector, demand forecast and just in time production became more important with developing and changing market condition. The Electricity Market Law was accepted on 14.03.2013 and established by official gazette on 30.03.2013. With Electricity Market Law, in changing market conditions, price of electricity depends on a supply demand equilibrium and is determined in day ahead, intraday and balancing power markets. If amount of supply is bigger than amount of demand, supplier will sell electricity with low price and make less profit. Otherwise, supplier work under absorption and sell less amount of electricity than they could do. In both condition, forecasting of electricity demand provides supplier to maximize their profit. Forecasting of electricity demand provides companies in short term to work in optimum condition and to maximize their profit. In middle term companies can plan their maintenance and forecast raw materials, in long terms companies could make a well-directed decision for their investment plan thanks to forecasting of electricity demand. While maximizing profit is important for annual income, calculating a raw material demand in low deviation is important for companies' financial status and their cash flow of companies. Forecasting of electricity demand makes future clear and would be helpful in long term for determining increase or decrease of capacity, operator requirement and financial model of possible investments. The purpose of this thesis is that developing a calculation method for long and short term electricity demand in changing condition by using previous data. The demand forecasting method is based on the basic statistical data of the parameters related to electricity consumption and its accuracy is compared with the data of 2017.