The impact of support policies on cotton production in Turkey and future forecast

It is obvious that agriculture has a great role in meeting the needs of society and in the development of society. Agriculture is the backbone of a country's economy. Turkey is among these countries. Many strategic agricultural products are grown on the territory of Turkey, one of which is the cotton plant, which has strategic importance and is described as "White Gold". Cotton not only provides raw materials to the textile industry, but also has a great importance in terms of supplying raw materials to the food and livestock sectors. Likewise, it indirectly contributes to the employment of the country by creating many fields of activity. Turkey has a great prestige in the textile industry at home and abroad, and makes significant contributions to the country's economy. Cotton production is an economically important and income generating field of agricultural activity for Turkey. In this study, cotton production area, production and consumption amount, yield and foreign trade data and policies applied for cotton production were evaluated and it was aimed to make the future forecast of cotton agriculture in Turkey and to determine the effectiveness of support policies. While FAO and TUIK databases are used to obtain data on cotton harvest area, production amount and yield values, ICAC and OECD databases are used to obtain cotton consumption data, FAO and UN Comtrade databases are used to obtain foreign trade data, and national statistics are used to examine developments in taxation and support of cotton production. and reports and literature sources prepared by international institutions were used. While the ARIMA model was used to predict the future of cotton production area, production amount and yield, linear multiple regression method was used to determine the effectiveness of support policies for cotton production. When the estimation results are examined; It is foreseen that the contraction in the harvest area will continue as in previous years and there will be a gradual increase in the amount and yield of cotton production. When the effectiveness of cotton support policies is examined; It has been concluded that the difference payment support has a positive effect on production, and the diesel and fertilizer support does not have a significant effect on production. In the study, it was aimed to help farmers make production decisions by estimating the course of cotton production and to reveal the effectiveness of cotton support policies.