An Statistical approach in comparing the economic indicators before and after elections in Turkey

ABSTRACT In every democratic society, there is a close relation between its economic programs and its political structure. It's climed that as Turkey moved to a political structure with multiple political parties, populist economic programs that applied by political parties during elections had various effect on Turkish economy. To asses the magnitute of effects of elections on Turkish economy, multivariate analysis of variance assumption and hypothesis testing were applied to compare economic indicators before and after elections. In comparing the economic indicators before and after elections in Turkey, a multivariate analysis of variance model that is used in testing hypotesis related to two populations, Hotelling T2 tecnique and its propositions were explanied. In comparing mean vectors of two populations, in case the variance- covariance matrices were equal, test-technique approach was used. When variance- covariance matrices different Behrens-Fischer approach was applied. Technical background of the relation between elections and economy was explanied and the relation betwen elections and economy in Turkey was analyzed utilizing advanced statistical models. Data related to 1987- 2000 elections was used to compare various economic indicators before and after elections to analyze the effect of "election economies" on Turkey's macro economy.