The phenomenon of jobless growth by sector in Türkiye and its investigation using time series models with structural breaks

One of the fundamental macroeconomic indicators of a country is its economic growth. Theoretically, it is expected that economic growth will have a positive impact on employment rates and reduce unemployment. Despite Türkiye's economic growth in recent years, it has been observed that this growth has not been adequately reflected in employment rate growth, resulting in process defined as jobless growth. This situation, which is also noteworthy in the context of the global economy, has become a frequently discussed topic in recent years. The aim of this thesis is to analyze why Türkiye has failed to achieve the expected effectiveness in creating employment despite its economic growth. Although numerous studies in the literature examine the relationship between economic growth and employment, it has been observed that research on the effects of the growth on employment accross the agricultural, industrial, and service sectors is limited. In this context, this thesis uses data from the period 2005Q1 to 2024Q4 to test the hypothesis of jobless growth at both the national and sectoral levels. In the study, the Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009) unit root test with multiple structural breaks, the Bayer and Hanck (2013) cointegration test, and the Maki (2012) cointegration with multiple structural break methods, as well as asymmetric and time-varying asymmetric causality methods, were used to test the jobless growth hypothesis. In line with the findings, it was concluded that jobless growth was prevalent in the Turkish Economy during the period under review. In sectoral-based analyses, it was determined that, except for the service sector, the hypothesis is valid. According to the causality analysis results, it was determined that while there exists a causality relationship between negative components, no causality between positive components. KEY WORDS: Jobless Growth, Asymmetric Causality, Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks