Self-sufficiency in agriculture and food security in Turkey

In this study, it is aimed to predict the state of food security in Turkey, whether it is self-sufficient in basic food products and by determining the self-sufficiency levels in selected basic herbal and animal products. Solutions have been introduced for the production policies of agricultural products at risk of self-sufficiency in Turkey. However, the competitive situation in the foreign market has been analyzed for food products in which Turkey provides self- self-adequacy. The scope of the research is within the framework of food security conditions; the natural resources, the technology and physical infrastructure offered, the use of land and agricultural production, the income, purchasing power and consumption patterns required when using these facilities with the determination of the use of agricultural foreign trade opportunities from the past to the present. The current and future status of food security in Turkey as a whole is discussed along with the agricultural support policies implemented within this scope, the sub-components of food security such as nutrition status, poverty, food safety and the degree of self-sufficiency in food consumption. The data of TURKSTAT and FAO were used mainly in the research and the last 30 years have been examined since 1990. ARIMA forecast models, Comparative Export Performance Index (CEPI) and Basic Components Analysis (TBA) were used in the analysis. Wheat, sunflower, sugar beet, lentils, dried beans, red meat, chicken meat and milk are estimated to be produced, exported and imported by 2030 from basic herbal and animal products. Estimated values and proficiency grades have been calculated. Wheat, sunflower, lentils, dried beans and red meat, which are currently self-deficient, will be insufficient in the next 10 years. These deficiencies are supported by imports and it is estimated that imports will increase gradually. However, This situation is not possible in the long term in the face of increasing populations and shrinking agricultural areas with possible threats such as food crises, natural disasters and economic crises. Therefore, necessary measures and policies have been proposed to ensure proficiency in the products discussed. Wheat and sunflower, which are adequate and exported in significant quantities of olives, chicken meat, eggs and processed products each year from products with surplus production, have also been found to have a very advantageous position in terms of international competitiveness in exports. Providing food supply with import support, the presence of around 11 million poor populations, the presence of chronic malnutrition under the age of 6% of the population under the age of five, the average annual 160,000 hectares of land processed out of agriculture in the last three decades in the face of the increasing population, the fact that there is an erosion problem in 37% of the agricultural area, has become a threat in ensuring food security. Turkey provides potentially food security, if not absolute. However, it has been revealed that this security could be lost at any time if necessary and sustainable measures are not taken that food security is risky.