Investigating the responses of alpine species caspian snowcock (Tetraogallus Caspius gmelin, 1784), caucasian grouse (Lyrurus mlokosiewiczi taczanowski, 1875) and caucasian snowcock (Tetraogallus caucasicus pallas, 1811) to climate change by using ecological niche modelling

The endemic and high altitude species are the most affected by global climate change. These species which experience extreme differences in their habitats are sensitive to the climate change. In order to show the effect of climate change on alpine bird species, ecological niche modeling was performed by selecting three different non-migratory alpine bird species Caspian Snowcock (Tetraogallus caspius), Caucasian Snowcock (Tetraogallus caucasicus) and Caucasian Grouse (Lyrurus mlokosiewiczi) distributed in the Middle East and Caucasus geographies. Using the MAXENT algorithm, the distributions of all three species were determined between Last Glacial Maximum (~22000 years ago), Mid-Holocene (~6000 years ago), present, and the future (2050 and 2070). Contrary to the glacial refugia hypothesis, which is mostly valid for temperate zone species, this study showed that the high altitude species extended their distribution areas in the Last Glacial Maximum. It was observed that the distribution areas narrowed in periods when the climate was warmer. Three different carbon emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to determine the future climate distributions of 2050 and 2070. All these scenarios modeled for the future predict that all three species will narrow their distribution areas. The population sizes of these species, which are sensitive to temperature and are distributed in the Alpine biogeography, are gradually shrinking today. In this thesis, it is predicted that all three species will gradually narrow their distribution and face the threat of extinction. Keywords: climate change, alpine bird species, high altitude, ecological niche modeling