The effects of Turkey's foreign trade of hazelnut exports after 1990: Sakarya sample

In this thesis, the effects of exports of hazelnut and hazelnut products from Sakarya on the foreign trade and national income of Turkey and Sakarya were investigated. The study is empirically analyzed (2004: Q1-2016: Q4), the stability of the series, ADF, PP, Vogelsang and Perron structural fractured unit root tests, and the relationships between the series were examined by Toda and Yamamoto's causality test. One-way causality relation between Sakarya's hazelnut exports and foreign exchange rate and from Sakarya's gross domestic product to Sakarya's hazelnut export has been determined from the total exports. The existence of cointegration relation between the series was investigated by the boundary test approach and the long and short term analyzes were performed by the ARDL method. As a result of long term analysis; Sakarya's hazelnut exports increased by 1%, while total exports increased by 0.12%. Short-term analysis showed that Sakarya's hazelnut exports positively affected exports. Increases in hazelnut prices have affected Sakarya's exports for a period of positive and negative for three periods.