A study of post - 2000 financial crises: The example of Turkey

After the third quarter of 2007, instabilities emerged especially in the global markets. These instabilities transformed into a global crisis in 2008 and caused a deep crisis to the world economy after the Great Economic Depression of 1929. The the global economic crisis in the world reflected to Turkey's growth in the face of difficulties in financing. As a result of these difficulties, real parameters of the economy were negatively affected. The decline or stoppage of production activities caused a slowdown in the course of investment instruments, economic activities and trade relations. In this context, increasing unemployment, decreasing demand and purchasing power, and halting production activities of enterprises were observed as important developments. In this thesis, macroeconomic variables that have strong ability to predict financial crisis as a result of necessary literature review, as well as how to react to financial crisis by using different set of variables that show domestic and international investor responses, are tried to determine by establishing an econometric model. In this study, data for 1994: 1-2014: 2 are used for predetermining the financial crisis, London Gold Price, Inflation, domestic debt stock (bonds), domestic credit, dollar / TL exchange rate, international reserves / imports the necessary inferences are made with the probit model to predict crises. As a result, the study showed that the increase in domestic credit volume and inflation (CPI) increased the likelihood of crisis the withdrawal of foreign investors from stock exchanges which is an investment instrument or go towards other countries' stock exchanges have an adverse effect on interest rates, savings, banking, growth, consumption volume, exchange rate, exports and investments by causing the economic crisis. As a result of the study, it can be said that the probit model is sufficient to explain crises.